Soybean futures dropped to nearly $10 per bushel on Friday, reaching their lowest level since October 1, as renewed U.S.–China trade tensions rattled agricultural markets and investor sentiment.
The decline came after U.S. President Donald Trump stated there was “no reason” to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping during their planned summit in South Korea, while also signaling potential tariff increases on Chinese goods. The move followed Beijing’s decision to expand export controls on rare earth metals, further dimming hopes for a near-term resolution to the long-running trade dispute between the two economic powers.
Adding to market uncertainty, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) postponed the release of its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report due to the ongoing federal government shutdown. Traders say the lack of updated data has left the market with limited direction as volatility persists.
Meanwhile, the $10–15 billion farm aid package promised by President Trump to offset trade-related losses remains on hold, with funds expected to be disbursed only after government operations resume.
In China, the Ministry of Agriculture maintained its 2025/26 soybean import forecast at 95.8 million tonnes, signaling stable demand despite the continued decline in U.S. shipments. Analysts note that China’s ongoing diversification of supply sources, particularly from South America, continues to weigh on U.S. export prospects and market confidence heading into the final quarter of the year.
