As of September 1, at the start of the new marketing year, China has not purchased any U.S. soybeans, raising serious concerns for American farmers. Historically, China buys nearly a quarter of U.S. production in just a few months, and the absence of this key buyer is already putting pressure on the sector.
Experts warn that row crop producers, especially in states like North Carolina, may be heading toward a potential farm crisis. They note that the issue goes beyond the current trade tensions with China; at its core lies the fact that crop prices have remained nearly stagnant over the past 15–20 years.
In North Carolina, farm-gate revenue, the income farmers receive when selling crops to elevators or processors, has lagged behind inflation. While everyday expenses such as food, healthcare, and clothing have steadily increased, farmers’ revenues remain largely unchanged compared to levels seen in 2012 and 2017. A comparison highlights the imbalance: while the price of a McDonald’s cheeseburger has more than doubled since 2012, soybean revenues have not experienced a comparable increase.
Analysts note that although soybean prices did rise slightly after 2008, establishing a new baseline, the trend has largely remained flat since then. Today’s farmers face the same structural challenge as their predecessors: rising input costs without a corresponding increase in crop income.
This situation leaves many farmers dependent on exceptional years, those with strong yields and favorable prices, to offset financially weaker years. Experts stress that such volatility is unsustainable, given agriculture’s critical role as the foundation of the global food and nutrition supply chain. Without aligning farm revenues more closely with economic realities, the long-term sustainability of U.S. row crop farming remains at risk.
