Uncertainty is mounting over the timeline for China’s pledged soybean purchases after the U.S. Trade Representative indicated that the deadline extends beyond the end of the calendar year and instead runs through the current growing season.
Testifying before a Senate Appropriations subcommittee, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said China’s commitment to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans should be measured against the growing season rather than a Dec. 31 cutoff, diverging from earlier White House messaging. His remarks followed media reports showing that China’s recent buying pace remains far below what would be required to meet the target by year-end.
According to Greer, China has so far purchased roughly 3 million metric tons since agreeing in October to resume U.S. soybean imports after a prolonged boycott linked to the trade dispute. He acknowledged an inconsistency between how the deadline has been publicly described and how it is being applied in practice.
The most recent U.S. soybean growing season concluded in November, based on U.S. Department of Agriculture definitions. However, administration officials later clarified that the reference to the growing season reflects the typical soybean sales cycle, which generally runs from September through March, even if physical shipments occur later. They maintained that the underlying purchase commitment remains unchanged.
Lawmakers raised concerns during the hearing, pointing to continued anxiety among farmers over whether and when China will fully honor its commitments. The White House’s own fact sheet on the trade framework states that China would buy at least 12 million metric tons during the final two months of 2025, followed by significantly larger annual purchases in subsequent years language that appears to conflict with the growing-season interpretation.
Outside experts have also questioned the terminology. Former USDA chief economist Joe Glauber noted that “growing season” is not a standard benchmark in agricultural trade policy, where the marketing year running from September through August is more commonly used. Under that framework, China would have until late summer to reach its targets, a timeline that aligns with typical global trade flows.
Seasonal dynamics further complicate the picture. Brazil dominates soybean exports early in the year due to its harvest cycle and lower prices, while U.S. soybeans tend to become more competitive later. This pattern suggests China may be more likely to meet its purchase goals closer to the end of the marketing year rather than within the narrow window initially highlighted by the White House.
Critics argue that such an extended timeline offers little immediate relief to U.S. farmers, who were led to expect near-term demand support. The USDA has been asked to comment on the apparent discrepancy, as producers and markets continue to seek clarity on when promised Chinese purchases will materialize.
