The recent phone call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi has reignited speculation in the grain markets. However, agriculture was notably absent from the discussion.
During last month’s trade call, President Trump made no mention of agricultural issues.
Meanwhile, wheat exports have reached their strongest levels in over a decade, and corn exports are progressing at a record pace early in the marketing year. Soybean exports, however, continue to lag, largely due to the absence of Chinese purchases.
Still, there is a glimmer of hope for soybean producers. President Trump’s recent statements specifically targeting soybeans have led some analysts to suggest that any potential trade progress with China could prioritize soybean deals.
Adding further uncertainty is the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has paused official USDA reporting. Analysts note that this gap in data could allow China to make soybean purchases “under the radar,” though they emphasize that this is only a possibility.
Additionally, the USDA’s monthly crop report, scheduled for Thursday, has been canceled, leaving the grain markets dependent on private forecasts.
So far, these private estimates closely track the USDA’s September figures, projecting national yields of 185.5–186.5 bushels for corn and 53.2–53.9 bushels for soybeans.
In these uncertain times, the market is watching closely for any signs of renewed momentum in U.S.-China agricultural trade.
