Soybean markets ended Friday with mixed results, as nearby contracts posted modest gains while deferred months fell, softening weekly losses. Traders cited a pattern of “buying the rumor, selling the fact” on China’s export demand, with no new U.S. sales reported Friday morning. Flooding in parts of Argentina has delayed planting, though overall crop conditions across South America remain largely favorable. Soybean meal futures closed higher, while soybean oil declined amid adjustments in product spreads. Market watchers are now awaiting the USDA’s December 9 supply and demand update, with Brazil’s CONAB expected to release its updated crop outlook on December 11.
Corn prices edged lower, pressured by fund and technical selling, cementing a weekly decline. Attention remains on the tail end of U.S. harvest activity and planting conditions in South America. Domestic and export demand continues to be steady. The USDA’s attaché in South Africa forecasts 2025/26 corn production at 16 million tons, slightly below previous estimates, with exports projected at 2.2 million tons, up from 1.5 million last year.
The wheat complex finished the week mixed. U.S. winter wheat conditions remain a key focus, as nearly 40% of growing areas face some level of drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, though recent rains have improved parts of the Plains and Midwest. Heavy rainfall has also delayed harvesting in Argentina, which could affect a record crop. Meanwhile, early harvest reports from Australia show favorable conditions, with the USDA attaché estimating the 2025/26 wheat crop at 36 million tons—up from the current official estimate of 34.5 million—with exports expected to rise above last year’s levels. Global wheat markets also continue to monitor conditions across Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, which could influence future trade flows.
