Chicago soybean futures edged higher on Wednesday as traders positioned themselves ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s first official global supply and demand report in weeks, scheduled for Friday. The most-active January contract on the Chicago Board of Trade closed up 6-1/2 cents at $11.33-3/4 per bushel, though gains were limited by a lack of substantial Chinese purchases.
“The market has been absent any fundamental information from the USDA due to the government shutdown,” said Brian Splitt, chief strategist at AgMarket.net. Investors are particularly focused on yield numbers, as Friday’s report will include two months of delayed data, offering the first comprehensive insight into U.S. corn and soybean production for the season.
Traders are also closely monitoring China’s progress toward its pledge to purchase 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans by year-end. So far, Beijing has made only modest U.S. agricultural purchases since high-level talks last month. Meanwhile, China’s state-owned COFCO announced agreements to buy over $10 billion in Brazilian soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, and other commodities, with no mention of U.S. purchases. Analysts note that a surplus of soybeans in China following months of record imports has limited the potential for large U.S. sales.
Elsewhere on the CBOT, December corn ticked up 3-1/4 cents to $4.35-1/4 per bushel amid concerns that dry conditions and diseases during the growing season affected both yield and quality. December wheat remained unchanged at $5.36 per bushel.
Ahead of Friday’s report, a Reuters poll of analysts projected that the USDA would revise U.S. corn yields down to 184.0 bushels per acre from 186.7 and soybean yields to 53.1 bushels per acre from 53.5. These figures will be closely watched, as they will influence trading strategies and market expectations for the remainder of the 2025-26 marketing year.
