The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) raised eyebrows across the farm belt with a bold projection: average soybean yields could reach a record 53.6 bushels per acre in 2025, up nearly 3 bushels from last year. For some regions, especially southern Illinois and southern Indiana—where soggy spring fields delayed planting—the numbers were almost too high to believe.
“Things would have to go right in terms of weather from here on out to reach those kinds of numbers,” warned Shaun Casteel, Purdue Extension soybean specialist, in a recent podcast. He stressed the need for steady heat and timely rains during the critical reproductive stage. “If rains dry up, it could take the top end off yields,” he said, adding that late-season disease outbreaks—such as sudden death syndrome and red crown rot—were beginning to appear in Illinois and Iowa.
Field checks offer mixed signals
On-the-ground scouting paints a nuanced picture. In mid-August, Beck’s regional agronomy manager Steve Gauck walked the Soybean Watch ’25 field in south-central Indiana. Despite strong potential, he spotted early signs of stress. “Weather, likely very hot weather, was causing some bean abortion within pods,” he said. The field is irrigated, and more than an inch of water had been applied days before his visit—a timely move to protect yield potential.
Gauck highlighted several factors shaping expectations:
- Pod development: Four-bean pods were relatively common, though aborted beans were visible.
- Stand counts: Cool, wet May weather cut into early stands, but soybeans compensated. By mid-June, plant density averaged 85,000 per acre. Thinner areas produced more branching, with some plants showing four or more branches loaded with pods.
- Node growth: Shorter node length during cool early growth transitioned to longer stretches later, when warmer, wetter conditions prevailed. Plants overall remain packed with nodes and pods.
- Branching competition: Replanted and double-planted areas displayed less branching per plant but taller growth, a response to denser competition for sunlight.
- Growth momentum: Plants continued adding new leaves, flowers, and pods through mid-August, suggesting yield potential was still building. Fortunately, lodging did not appear to be an immediate concern.
Harvest progress and outlook
Combines are already rolling in some early-planted, early-maturing fields. But the bulk of Midwest soybeans remain in active growth, with moisture availability determining how much more yield potential can be added in the final stretch. In irrigated and well-watered regions, the story isn’t finished yet.
The USDA’s optimistic yield forecast may ultimately prove accurate—but as Casteel and other agronomists emphasize, Mother Nature will make the final call.
