After China suspended soybean purchases from the United States between June and August 2025 due to the tariffs implemented during President Donald Trump’s administration, other suppliers such as Brazil and Argentina have found a new niche in the Chinese market. This development was highlighted in a survey by the American Farm Bureau Federation, which represents six million American farmers.
According to the federation’s report, U.S. soybean imports by China fell to their lowest level ever in 2025. In contrast, Brazil has emerged as the main supplier of soybeans to the Asian giant. Between January and August 2025, China imported only 5.8 million tons of American soybeans, compared to 26.5 million tons during the same period last year, a nearly 80% drop. From June to August, the United States shipped “virtually nothing” to China, and the Asian country did not purchase any new crops for next year’s harvest.
During the same period, Brazil exported over 77 million tons of soybeans to China. Argentina also increased its soybean sales after suspending the export tax, refunding the tax once export values exceeded $7 billion.
According to the American Federation of Agricultural Offices, this decline is not a one-off event; it reflects China’s long-standing supplier diversification policy. Since 2018, when the Trump administration initiated the trade war, China has deprioritized U.S. farmers despite record domestic demand.
The decline extends beyond soybeans: U.S. exports of corn, wheat, and sorghum to China also fell to zero in 2025, while pork and cotton sales remain sluggish.
The survey notes that the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects total agricultural exports to China will fall to $17 billion this year—30% lower than in 2024 and more than 50% below 2022 levels. The estimate for 2026 is even lower at $9 billion, the lowest level since 2018.
