Chicago grain markets fell sharply on Friday following the release of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s first global supply and demand outlook since the 43-day government shutdown, alongside new export data shedding light on Chinese soybean purchases.
Soybean futures led the decline, with the most-active January contract Sv1 on the Chicago Board of Trade dropping 22-1/2 cents to close at $11.24-1/2 per bushel. Corn and wheat also retreated, with corn Cv1 losing 11-1/4 cents to $4.30-1/4 and wheat Wv1 falling 10-3/4 cents to $5.41-1/2 per bushel.
The USDA projected the 2025 U.S. corn yield at 186.0 bushels per acre, down slightly from 186.7 bushels in September, and lowered production estimates to 16.752 billion bushels. For soybeans, the agency forecast a yield of 53.0 bushels per acre, down from 53.5 bushels, with production expected at 4.253 billion bushels, compared with 4.301 billion previously.
Market analysts reacted to the figures with caution. Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities, noted that corn yields were not reduced as much as traders had anticipated, while ending stocks rose, signaling an overall bearish supply outlook. Soybean yields also fell short of market expectations, contributing to the downward pressure on prices.
In addition, the USDA released a six-week summary of daily U.S. agricultural sales, providing insight into China’s recent buying patterns. Exporters sold 100,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery on October 30 and 232,000 metric tons on November 3. While these sales reflect modest progress, China has yet to confirm the White House’s claim that it will purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of the year.
Traders are closely monitoring these figures as they assess the impact on U.S. soybean, corn, and wheat markets, with market sentiment influenced both by domestic production data and the pace of international purchases. The report highlights the delicate balance between supply expectations and global demand, particularly amid ongoing uncertainties in U.S.-China agricultural trade.
