China’s soybean buying activity has slowed sharply as high premiums for Brazilian cargoes and ongoing trade frictions with the United States create uncertainty in the market. According to trade sources, the world’s largest soybean importer still needs to secure around 8 to 9 million metric tons of soybeans for December and January shipments, after already covering supplies through November with large purchases from Argentina.
Traders say that with U.S. soybeans effectively shut out by trade tensions and Brazilian beans priced too high, Chinese buyers may turn to state reserves to meet short-term domestic needs. Premiums for Brazilian soybeans remain elevated at $2.8–$2.9 per bushel above the November Chicago soybean contract, compared with about $1.7 for U.S. cargoes. Meanwhile, crushing margins have stayed negative for much of the second half of the year, leaving processors reluctant to lock in additional imports at current prices.
Industry analysts expect prices could ease once Brazil begins harvesting its record 2025/26 soybean crop, projected at 177.64 million metric tons roughly six million tons higher than last year. New crop shipments may start as early as late January, offering potential relief to Chinese buyers. However, optimism remains cautious. Market observers say that if Washington and Beijing reach a trade agreement in the coming months, Chinese crushers could resume buying U.S. soybeans for a short-term two-month window, taking advantage of more competitive pricing compared to South American offers.
