U.S. soybean prices closed higher this week, driven by commercial and technical buying, as markets responded to continued optimism surrounding the trade framework with China. While Beijing has pledged to purchase U.S. soybeans, current prices remain at a premium to Brazilian supplies, partly due to China’s 13% levy on American beans. In October, China bought 9.48 million tons of U.S. soybeans—the largest October total on record—even as Brazilian exports rose sharply to 6.728 million tons. ANEC projects November exports from Brazil at 3.77 million tons.
The recent U.S. sales to China may appear in upcoming export inspections or be delivered later this year or early next year. However, the federal government shutdown has suspended USDA daily sales announcements and weekly export reports, creating gaps in market information. U.S. soybean traders are also watching the very late stages of the domestic harvest and South American planting conditions, with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reporting just 4.4% of Argentina’s soybean crop planted. Soybean meal and oil futures moved higher alongside bean prices.
Corn ended the week modestly lower, pressured by profit taking and technical selling. The market is monitoring the final stages of the U.S. harvest and planting progress in Argentina and Brazil. Weather forecasts for the central and northern Corn Belt show mixed conditions, with dry areas but the potential for snow and colder temperatures through early next week. USDA’s supply, demand, and production report on November 14 will include field-based survey data, leaving the possibility for minor yield adjustments, though major changes are expected to await preliminary January figures. CONAB’s updated outlook for Brazil is also due November 14, with ANEC projecting November corn exports at 5.57 million tons. In Argentina, 36% of the corn crop is planted, with 79% rated good to excellent.
The wheat complex finished the week mixed. Chicago and Kansas City were lower amid U.S. winter wheat development concerns, though drought-affected areas slightly receded. Minneapolis wheat gained on China’s recent purchase of U.S. hard red spring wheat, highlighting the market’s positive reaction to any new international demand. Reports indicate winter wheat planting on the North China Plain has temporarily halted due to heavy rainfall. Globally, traders are monitoring weather conditions in Europe, Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, and Australia, where wheat development and early harvest progress continue. Argentina’s wheat harvest reached 11.6%, up from 8.4% last week.
