The U.S. is experiencing its most significant expansion of soybean crushing capacity in decades, driven primarily by the massive, new domestic demand for soybean oil from the renewable diesel industry. This expansion, concentrated in the Midwest and Northern Plains, is set to add over 234 million bushels of new capacity by 2030, with a substantial portion coming online in 2025 and 2026. This is fundamentally reshaping the soybean market, with major impacts on prices, trade flows, and the entire supply chain.
Plant Map and Timelines
The new crush capacity isn’t just about a few new facilities; it’s a nationwide buildout with strategic new plants and expansions of existing ones. This is shifting the processing map away from traditional export corridors and closer to where the soybeans are grown.
- Northern Plains Surge: The Northern Plains—specifically North Dakota and South Dakota—is a focal point for new capacity. Historically, soybeans from this region were primarily exported through Pacific Northwest ports. Now, new plants are changing that.
- North Dakota: The state’s first-ever soybean crushing plant, Green Bison Soybean Processing (an ADM/Marathon Petroleum joint venture), opened in late 2023, and North Dakota Soybean Processors opened in 2024. These two plants alone have added significant capacity, and others are in the planning stages.
- South Dakota: A new multi-seed crush facility in Mitchell is scheduled to start up in late 2025, and another plant in Miller is also under construction.
- Midwest Expansion: The heart of the Corn Belt is also seeing significant investment.
- Nebraska: A new Ag Processing (AGP) plant in David City is slated to open in late 2025.
- Ohio: A new Louis Dreyfus plant in Upper Sandusky is set to be completed in the first half of 2026.
- Capacity Numbers: The total announced capacity additions are substantial. Approximately 75 million bushels per year are expected to come online in 2025, with another 114 million bushels in 2026. If all announced projects are completed, total U.S. crush capacity could increase by over 20% since the beginning of 2023.
Key Market Impacts
This dramatic increase in domestic crush capacity is having a profound and multi-faceted impact on the U.S. soybean market.
- Stronger Local Basis: The most immediate impact is on farmers. New crushing plants create a powerful new source of local demand for soybeans, which strengthens the local cash basis. In areas with new plants, basis levels have increased by as much as 20-25 cents per bushel, directly benefiting farmers.
- The Meal Conundrum: The crushing process yields about 80% soybean meal and 20% soybean oil. This new capacity is flooding the market with a massive surplus of soybean meal. While U.S. domestic consumption is a huge driver, the industry will need to find new markets, particularly export markets, to absorb this additional supply and prevent a collapse in meal prices.
- Shifting Trade Flows: The U.S. is becoming a bigger exporter of value-added products (soybean meal and oil) and a smaller exporter of whole soybeans. This changes the dynamics of global trade, as countries that once imported U.S. whole soybeans for crushing may now turn to other suppliers or import the finished products from the U.S. instead.
- The Price Floor for Oil: The primary driver of this expansion is the soaring demand for soybean oil from the renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industries. This demand provides a crucial price floor for the entire soybean complex. Even if export demand for whole soybeans weakens, the robust domestic demand for oil ensures that prices remain supported, which is a major benefit for farmers and the entire supply chain.
The new crush capacity represents a long-term strategic shift for the U.S. soybean industry, moving it from a primarily export-driven commodity to a more domestically focused, value-added one.
