The U.S. soybean market has seen a remarkable rally over the past month, moving sharply higher from October lows and leaving behind the prolonged period of weak prices that defined much of the past 16 months.
From the Oct. 14 close to the Nov. 18 high, soybean futures have surged $1.63, successfully filling a gap that had been left on the most-active chart since June 2024. While this rally has appeared relatively smooth, technical analysts warn that the next 30 cents of gains—moving from $11.55 to around $11.85 in January futures—could be more challenging to achieve. Market observers compare this stage to the final, difficult stretch of a dramatic breakout, as prices approach a key zone of historical trading volume.
Over the past two years, soybean futures experienced heavy trading between the upper $9.00s and roughly $10.70, a zone that effectively trapped prices through late 2024 and most of 2025. The recent breakout in late October was fueled by rising Chinese demand and expectations for lower U.S. production, allowing prices to finally move above this long-standing range. The next significant area of liquidity now stretches from just above $11.55 to near $11.85, a region where transactions between buyers and sellers have historically been concentrated, indicating a zone where the market will need to absorb substantial volume to continue upward.
Early sessions following the recent highs have shown some profit-taking, with January soybean futures reaching $11.69 1/2 on Nov. 18 before easing slightly. Analysts stress that such pauses are normal when approaching areas of high liquidity and advise patience, noting that markets often take time to push through these technical barriers. If the soybean market can maintain momentum near current levels and receive continued support from USDA reports, traders may see sustained gains worth the wait.
Overall, while the soybean rally has been dramatic, technical and fundamental factors suggest that the next phase may require careful navigation before reaching new heights.
