U.S. grain markets saw soybeans and corn advance on Thursday, driven by short covering and technical buying, as traders prepared for the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday trade pause. Soybeans rose despite no new confirmation of rumored U.S. sales to China. While the USDA did not release a daily sales announcement, market participants appeared largely unfazed, with government officials indicating that China’s purchases remain on track and that a formal trade deal could be finalized in the coming weeks. Favorable planting and development conditions in South America also supported the market, although the USDA’s next supply and demand estimates on December 9 and Brazil’s CONAB outlook on December 11 remain key upcoming data points. Soybean meal futures were largely mixed, consolidating after recent gains, while bean oil moved higher on light pre-holiday volume. Brazil’s ANEC projects November soybean exports at 4.4 million tons, slightly below the previous estimate of 4.71 million tons.
Corn futures also benefited from short covering and technical buying, reflecting continued solid demand amid increasing export competition from Argentina and Ukraine. U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.113 million barrels per day last week, up 22,000 barrels from the prior week but slightly below last year’s levels. Ethanol stocks dropped to a five-week low at 21.968 million barrels, down 339,000 barrels from the previous week and 901,000 barrels year-over-year. Exports averaged 122,000 barrels per day, declining from both the previous week and the same period last year. Corn markets also monitored the final stages of U.S. harvest activity before the onset of winter-like weather, as well as favorable crop conditions in South America. Brazil’s ANEC estimates November corn exports at 6.11 million tons, slightly below the prior forecast of 6.36 million tons.
The wheat complex displayed mixed results, with Chicago and Kansas City futures moving higher, while Minneapolis declined. Demand remains strong despite competitive global pricing and rising world supplies. USDA’s weekly export sales data, typically released on Thursday, was delayed to Friday due to the Thanksgiving holiday. Turkey reportedly purchased approximately 300,000 tons of Russian wheat in a direct deal, while South Korea secured 91,300 tons of U.S. wheat and an additional 40,000 tons from Canada. Wheat markets are tracking harvest activity in Argentina and Australia, development weather across Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, and potential geopolitical developments regarding an end to the conflict in Ukraine. U.S. winter wheat fields are expected to enter dormancy in the coming days, setting the stage for seasonal market adjustments.
As traders head into the holiday break, the focus remains on end-of-year export activity, South American crop conditions, and evolving geopolitical developments, all of which will shape the trajectory of U.S. grain markets in the weeks ahead.
