China has confirmed it will suspend a portion of the retaliatory tariffs imposed on U.S. goods, offering a limited boost to trade relations after last week’s high-level talks between the two countries’ leaders. However, the crucial 13% levy on U.S. soybeans will remain in place leaving American exporters at a competitive disadvantage against cheaper Brazilian supplies.
According to Beijing’s announcement, duties of up to 15% on selected U.S. agricultural products will be lifted beginning November 10. Yet the 10% tariff linked to previous trade actions and the separate 13% soybean duty will continue. The move comes after renewed diplomatic engagement eased concerns that Washington and Beijing might abandon efforts to stabilize trade ties disrupted by years of tariff escalation.
Expectations of increased Chinese buying briefly supported U.S. soybean futures, which recently climbed to their strongest levels since mid-2024. But the continued soybean tariff has dampened market optimism. With Brazilian beans priced significantly lower, commercial Chinese buyers are expected to keep sourcing from South America rather than the United States.
Recent purchasing patterns highlight that trend: Chinese importers secured around 20 cargoes of Brazilian soybeans as South American prices softened. Analysts note that even non-Chinese buyers are favoring Brazilian supplies due to the price gap. Unless Beijing decides to waive the soybean duty, China’s state reserve buyer would likely need to absorb higher-cost U.S. shipments if it intends to meet the 12-million-ton year-end purchase expectation cited by Washington—an ambitious volume given the short timeline.
Brazilian soybeans for December shipment are currently offered at a lower premium compared with U.S. Gulf Coast supplies, reinforcing South America’s pricing advantage. Some limited U.S. purchases have taken place through COFCO, which bought small volumes from the new harvest ahead of last week’s meeting, interpreted as a gesture of goodwill rather than a market-driven shift.
China sourced about 20% of its soybean imports from the United States in 2024, compared with more than 40% in 2016 before the trade conflict began. This year, high tariffs have sharply reduced Chinese buying of U.S. new-crop soybeans, worsening financial pressure on American farmers.
In discussions this week with a U.S. agricultural delegation, China’s senior trade negotiator pointed to U.S. tariffs as the primary driver of volatility in bilateral agricultural trade. Beijing emphasized the importance of both countries as major partners and expressed hopes for improved conditions to support stable cooperation.
Alongside its tariff adjustments, China also announced a one-year suspension of certain additional duties imposed in April and said it would temporarily lift or suspend several non-tariff retaliatory measures targeting U.S. entities.
