In a few weeks, U.S. soybean farmers will begin harvesting an excellent crop, but a major problem looms: the world’s top buyer, China, has not placed a single order for the fall. This absence of Chinese demand is creating significant anxiety and financial pressure across the American farm belt, with farmers, industry groups, and economists voicing concern.
The current situation is a sharp departure from last year, when China had already booked over 13 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by this time. The lack of new orders is fueling worries among farmers like Tim Maxwell from Iowa, who said the “lack of market will put tremendous pressure on many farmers.”
To break the stalemate, the U.S. government will send a delegation of farmers and agricultural exporters to Beijing this fall. This marks the third annual visit aimed at securing much-needed orders, as reported by the South China Morning Post.
The American Soybean Association (ASA) issued a warning in August, stating that U.S. farmers cannot afford the consequences if China abandons the market. ASA president Caleb Ragland said that domestic and alternative markets are simply unable to fill the gap left by China’s massive demand, which has already driven down prices.
The economic stakes are high. According to Reuters, citing customs data, in 2016, China purchased 41% of its soybeans from the U.S., but that share has since plummeted to roughly 20% by 2024. Meanwhile, China has heavily favored Brazilian soybeans, which now account for over 70% of its total purchases (74.65 million metric tons last year), according to China’s customs agency. This shift is compounded by China’s efforts to reduce its reliance on foreign soybeans by altering feed formulas and boosting domestic production.
Economist Christopher A. Wolf of Cornell University noted that “tariffs have caused intense volatility and uncertainty for U.S. farmers.” The ongoing crisis for U.S. agricultural exports began after President Trump announced new “reciprocal tariffs,” causing Chinese orders for U.S. farm products to plummet, according to a BBC report. Bloomberg data shows that bankruptcy filings among small farm businesses reached a five-year high in July.
The mounting pressure is leading some Midwest growers, who once supported Trump, to now call for lower tariffs. The sentiment on the ground stands in stark contrast to President Trump’s earlier remarks in March, when he touted an approaching “bumper harvest” just before announcing the tariffs. Now, with the bumper harvest here, the crucial orders that were expected have not followed. Chicago-based AgResource Company predicts that without Chinese purchases before mid-November, the U.S. could lose 14 to 16 million metric tons in sales this year.
