A Rabobank global strategist warned that expanding domestic soybean processing cannot fully compensate for the decline in Chinese demand. Stephen Nicholson, speaking at the 2025 NAFB Convention in Kansas City, called such expectations “unrealistic.”
Nicholson said that while recent trade frameworks with China offer some optimism, uncertainty remains. “While it’s good to see, the framework that came out with China, there’s a lot of uncertainty still, it’s not written in stone,” he said.
He pointed out that China has yet to follow through on its full purchase commitments. “They’ve taken one million metric tons out of a reported 12 million metric tons that’s supposed to be shipped by the end of the year. Let’s be realistic; that’s not going to happen. I think the most we’ve ever shipped in a month is a little over seven million metric tons,” Nicholson said.
Despite this, U.S. soybean exports to China continue, with more than 1.6 million tons purchased so far this week. Nicholson’s comments highlight ongoing challenges for U.S. soybean markets as producers weigh domestic crush growth against uncertain international demand.
