Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade hit their highest levels in a year-and-a-half on November 18, fueled by optimism over renewed Chinese purchases. Traders are closely watching export activity, however, as sustaining the rally will require additional sales to meet announced targets.
Since the end of the recent government shutdown, U.S. export data shows just over one million tonnes of soybeans sold to China in November. Despite this activity, uncertainty remains over whether China will reach its pledged 12 million tonnes by year-end and commit to the additional 25 million tonnes annually for the next three years, following a late October meeting between U.S. and Chinese leaders.
Prior to trade tensions that escalated in May, China had already purchased six million tonnes of U.S. soybeans in 2025. If all projected deals are finalized, total sales for the year could reach 18 million tonnes, still below the 26.8 million tonnes shipped to China in 2024. Market watchers note that further purchases will be necessary to reinforce bullish momentum.
Technically, January soybean futures face immediate resistance at $11.60 per bushel, with a November 18 high of $11.6950 marking the next potential upside target. Support levels are seen around the 20-day moving average at $11.17 and the psychological $11.00 per bushel mark.
Corn and wheat prices received some lift from soybean advances, though abundant global grain supplies continue to limit upside potential. Updated USDA forecasts project the largest U.S. wheat carryout in six years, with world stocks revised upward by 7.4 million tonnes to 271.4 million tonnes, maintaining pressure on the broader grain markets.
As the soybean market balances optimism over Chinese buying with cautious assessment of supply dynamics, traders remain focused on both export follow-through and the influence of global grain inventories on price trends.
