Soybeans advanced on short covering and technical buying as traders positioned themselves ahead of Friday’s USDA and CONAB reports. Market watchers anticipate the USDA will slightly lower U.S. yield and production figures, while Brazil’s CONAB is expected to project a record soybean crop. After reopening, the USDA is also preparing to release backlogged export data, including daily sales missed during the government shutdown. These updates will provide clearer insight into Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans. Soybean meal futures moved higher, while soybean oil edged lower amid adjustments in product spreads.
Corn prices were also higher, supported by short covering and technical buying. Traders are awaiting the USDA and CONAB updates, which are expected to include revised U.S. yield and production numbers as well as updated projections for Brazil’s first and second corn crops. Meanwhile, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported ethanol production averaged 1.075 million barrels per day, a slight decline from the previous week, with stocks at 22.219 million barrels and exports averaging 157,000 barrels per day.
The wheat complex traded mixed, reflecting uncertainty ahead of key reports. Analysts expect the USDA to raise both domestic and global ending stocks estimates, although the extent of the adjustment remains unclear after October’s report was canceled due to the federal shutdown. The upcoming release of delayed daily export sales announcements will provide more detail on recent U.S. wheat purchases by China. Wheat markets are also tracking early harvest activity in Argentina and Australia, alongside winter wheat development in the U.S., Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentina’s wheat crop at 24 million tons, while the Rosario Grain Exchange reports 24.5 million tons. Approximately 15% of Argentina’s crop has been harvested so far, and Australia is expected to produce a larger crop than last year.
