China may be waiting for soybean prices to reach a clear market low before returning with sizable purchases, a strategy that could set the stage for a recovery later in the year. While early optimism around renewed Chinese buying of U.S. soybeans has faded, historical trends suggest that the Thanksgiving-to-New Year period often brings a rebound—if demand materializes.
Over the past month, January 2026 soybean futures have dropped nearly 85 cents, extending a pullback that had been flagged as a possible scenario weeks earlier. In late October and early November, prices surged more than $1 after signals from the current U.S. administration indicated that China would resume buying U.S. soybeans under a trade agreement. That rally was reinforced by slightly lower U.S. ending stocks in the November USDA WASDE report.
However, the enthusiasm has since cooled. Chinese purchases have fallen well short of industry expectations. Market participants had anticipated China would buy around 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by year-end, but U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently suggested that large-scale purchases may not take place until late February. The uncertainty and lack of follow-through triggered a renewed selloff in soybean futures.
From a marketing and trading perspective, sluggish Chinese demand continues to weigh heavily on prices. Adding to the pressure is a bearish technical pattern emerging on daily charts—the so-called “head and shoulders” formation. While fundamentals ultimately drive market direction, the absence of supportive demand news has allowed this technical setup to take shape.
In the January 2026 soybean futures chart, the top of the “head” stands at $11.69½, with neckline support near $11.15. The difference between these levels—about 54½ cents—represents the potential downside move if prices decisively break below support. That scenario points to a target near $10.60½, close to an unfilled chart gap around $10.63. Such levels are being closely watched by technically focused traders as possible short-term lows.
Importantly, these lower prices could also attract renewed buying interest from China, particularly if U.S. soybeans are viewed as attractively priced. A significant purchase at these levels would likely provide much-needed support and could spark a recovery rally.
Seasonality also offers a note of cautious optimism. An analysis of the past 11 years shows that March soybean futures have posted some form of rally between roughly Nov. 20 and year-end in every year examined, despite widely varying supply-and-demand conditions. With corn already showing signs of a potential Christmas rally, the question now is whether soybeans can follow suit—especially if Chinese demand finally re-enters the market at scale.
