Soybean prices fell further on Tuesday amid profit-taking and technical selling, despite new purchases from China. Traders reacted to Monday’s strength by “buying the rumor, selling the fact” on Chinese demand. The USDA reported that China purchased an additional 462,000 tons of U.S. soybeans, bringing the weekly total of announced sales to 1.584 million tons.
Market participants are also closely watching late U.S. harvest activity and planting and development conditions in South America. China’s General Administration of Customs reported record soybean imports for October, totaling 9.48 million tons, including 7.12 million tons from Brazil and 1.57 million tons from Argentina. Safras e Mercado now projects Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop at 179 million tons, slightly below previous estimates but 4% higher than 2024/25, with exports forecasted at 109 million tons—up 2% from last year. Soybean meal and oil futures declined alongside the general bearish sentiment in the soy complex.
Corn also edged lower on fund and technical selling. Traders are monitoring South American conditions, including recent flooding in parts of Brazil and Argentina and prospects for drier weather next month, as well as the late U.S. harvest. Export demand remains solid, but Argentina and Ukraine are increasingly competitive. The USDA will release its next supply and demand update on December 9, followed by CONAB’s Brazil outlook on December 11. Global corn production for 2025/26 is projected at 1.298 billion tons, according to the International Grains Council.
The wheat complex finished lower as well, pressured by technical and fund selling. Although the USDA confirmed the sale of 132,000 tons of U.S. white wheat to China, U.S. wheat prices remain less competitive after the recent rally. The market is also tracking harvest activity in Argentina and Australia, along with winter wheat development in the U.S., Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. Near-term forecasts indicate improved precipitation for U.S. winter wheat areas, potentially benefiting crop conditions before dormancy. The International Grains Council raised its global wheat production estimate for 2025/26 by 3 million tons to 830 million.
