The trade agreement signed in November between the United States and China marks the end of a six-month suspension of U.S. soybean imports by China, the world’s largest buyer. Under the deal, China will purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the final two months of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. While the announcement brings relief to U.S. producers, it still represents a significant decline compared with historical export levels.
Before the trade war intensified, the United States had exported nearly 6 million metric tons of soybeans to China by May 2025. If China fulfills its purchase commitments, total U.S. soybean exports to China this year would reach approximately 18 million metric tons—33% lower than the 26.8 million metric tons shipped in 2024. The projected volumes for 2026–2028 remain below the ten-year and five-year averages of U.S. soybean shipments to China, underscoring that the agreement provides a partial, rather than full, recovery.
The resumption of Chinese purchases helped support soybean futures, pushing prices close to $11 per bushel, the highest level in over a year. Yet after adjusting for basis, many U.S. producers are still likely to see cash prices below break-even levels for 2025 crops.
Meanwhile, Brazil capitalized on the six-month U.S. export suspension to expand its market share in China. Between January and October, Brazil exported a record 79 million metric tons of soybeans to China, accounting for nearly 80% of its total soybean shipments. This volume is expected to reach around 82 million tons by year-end, surpassing 2024 totals despite the return of U.S. soy. Looking ahead to 2026, Brazilian exports to China are projected to decline slightly, though record acreage planted for the 2025/26 crop signals continued competitiveness.
Argentina also benefited from the shift in Chinese demand. Between January and September 2025, Argentina exported 7.6 million metric tons of soybeans, with 90% destined for China—a 65% increase over 2024. The temporary suspension of Argentina’s 26% soybean export tax enabled a rapid surge in Chinese purchases before the tax was reinstated, demonstrating the country’s capacity to respond quickly to market opportunities. Argentine farmers are planting 7.4 million acres for the 2025/26 season, slightly down from last year, but still among the largest in recent years.
Despite the U.S.–China deal, South American soy remains highly competitive due to remaining U.S. tariffs and the expanded production in Brazil and Argentina. Consequently, U.S. exporters are increasingly looking to diversify their sales across East Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia. Early gains have been reported in countries like Thailand, Bangladesh, and Morocco, but it remains uncertain whether these markets can fully offset weaker Chinese demand and stabilize U.S. soybean acreage.
The agreement provides a short-term market reprieve, but historical comparisons highlight that U.S. soybean exports are unlikely to return to pre-trade-war levels immediately. Combined with ongoing tariff pressures and strong South American production, the U.S. soybean sector faces a period of cautious optimism as it navigates a reshaped global market.
