U.S. soybean futures surged to a 15-month high on Friday, marking the biggest monthly gain since December 2020, as optimism grew over renewed exports to China following a recent trade deal. The most-active January soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade ended 7-1/2 cents higher at $11.15-1/4 per bushel, briefly surpassing a July 2024 peak.
The rally was driven by U.S. officials’ announcements that China, the world’s largest soybean importer, committed to purchasing tens of millions of tons of American soybeans over the next few years. The agreement includes a pledge to buy 12 million metric tons through January and at least 25 million metric tons annually for the next three years.
“This is going to be something where we should see sales almost every other day,” said Rich Nelson, chief strategist at Allendale. He added that while the pledge is below historical U.S. exports to China, it likely exceeds what China would have purchased amid its shift toward Brazilian soybeans.
Corn and wheat futures also edged higher in Friday trading, with December corn up 1-1/4 cents to $4.31-1/2 per bushel and December wheat rising 9-3/4 cents to $5.34 per bushel. While no specific trade commitments for these grains were announced, both posted monthly gains alongside soybeans.
Traders cautioned that actual U.S. exports will depend on how China fulfills its pledge. Analysts from Commerzbank noted, “Confirmation from China is still pending. Until this happens, the upside potential for soybean prices is likely to be limited.”
The surge in soybean prices reflects renewed market confidence that the long-standing U.S.-China trade conflict may ease, opening the door to a resumption of American soy exports that were largely diverted to South America over the past years.
