The United States Department of Agriculture has revised its corn and soybean yield projections downward, reflecting updated supply and demand expectations for the 2025/26 marketing year. The November 14 report was the first official estimate since September, following the cancellation of the October report due to the recent government shutdown.
For soybeans, U.S. yields were pegged at 53.0 bushels per acre, down slightly from the September estimate of 53.5 bu./ac. and modestly below pre-report trade forecasts of 53.1 bu./ac. Total soybean production was projected at 4.253 billion bushels, a notable decrease from 4.651 billion bushels in September and 4.744 billion bushels a year earlier. Ending stocks for U.S. soybeans in 2025/26 were forecast at 290 million bushels, down 10 million from the previous estimate, suggesting tighter availability for domestic use and export.
Corn yields were also revised lower, estimated at 186.0 bushels per acre compared with 186.7 bu./ac. in September. The USDA’s projection for total U.S. corn production stood at 16.752 billion bushels, down 62 million from September but still above average market expectations. Corn ending stocks for the marketing year were raised to 2.154 billion bushels, indicating ample domestic supply despite the yield reduction.
On the global front, USDA estimated world corn ending stocks for 2025/26 at 281.24 million tonnes, slightly below September levels and marginally under trade expectations. World soybean ending stocks were forecast at 121.99 million tonnes, down two million tonnes from the previous report, signaling tighter global availability. Wheat stocks, however, increased to 271.43 million tonnes, up 7.37 million tonnes from September and roughly five million tonnes above average market estimates.
The report underscores the continued volatility in global grain markets, with U.S. farmers and exporters closely monitoring both domestic yield trends and international supply dynamics. The revisions may have immediate implications for commodity pricing and trade strategies as the year progresses.
