The U.S. Department of Agriculture left its forecast for soybean exports in the 2025/26 marketing year unchanged in its monthly outlook, even as China has resumed buying U.S. soybeans after months of minimal trade, according to the latest report.
The USDA pegged total soybean exports for the season, which ends August 31, at 1.635 billion bushels a 13-year low and about 13 % below the prior year’s volume. Ending stocks were also left unchanged from the previous month at 290 million bushels, reflecting ongoing weak demand from key global buyers.
China, traditionally the world’s largest importer of U.S. soybeans, began purchasing again following a high-level meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in late October, during which Beijing agreed to buy up to 12 million metric tons from the current crop. Some of the roughly 2.9 million metric tons in confirmed sales have already started to ship, offering a tentative lift to the market.
However, the resumed Chinese purchases remain far below historical levels, as overall soybean sales to all destinations through early November were nearly 40 % below year-ago figures. That continued shortfall has kept downward pressure on soybean prices and contributed to significant revenue losses for U.S. farmers. Analysts suggest the USDA may be holding its forecast steady in anticipation of further sales, either from China or other global buyers, before making deeper revisions.
In contrast to soybeans, the USDA raised its U.S. corn export outlook to a record 3.2 billion bushels on stronger international demand, while projecting tighter end-of-season supplies. Benchmark soybean futures declined following the report, while corn futures strengthened amid the more upbeat outlook for that crop.
