The soybean market has experienced unusual volatility following announcements of a trade framework between the United States and China, which included commitments from Beijing to purchase U.S. soybeans. Jim McCormick, chief operating officer of AgMarket.net, described the market’s repeated rallies on both rumors and partial fulfillment of the deal as unprecedented in his 30 years of experience.
Speaking at the 2025 NAFB National Convention in Kansas City, McCormick emphasized that the U.S. and China have not yet signed a formal agreement. He noted that while initial purchases have begun, the volumes remain limited, accounting for only a small fraction of the 12 million metric tons publicly pledged by U.S. officials. “We essentially have a framework, and as we know, these frameworks can fall apart,” McCormick said.
Despite some optimism that China’s recent purchases signal a willingness to follow through, McCormick expressed caution about the economic and political context. He pointed out that tariffs remain in place, providing little economic incentive for Beijing to import U.S. soybeans, suggesting that the purchases may be politically motivated to fulfill the trade agreement rather than driven by market demand.
The deal’s scale also falls short of earlier expectations. Analysts had anticipated around 25 million metric tons of Chinese soybean purchases for this marketing year, based on recent trends, but the current agreement covers roughly half that volume. McCormick highlighted that while the early shipments are encouraging, skepticism remains about whether China will fully meet its commitments.
The market has repeatedly reacted to news of the deal. McCormick described three distinct rallies: first on speculation that a U.S.-China agreement was imminent, then on official statements from U.S. officials confirming the deal, and most recently as China began modest purchases. “I’ve never seen a market where you bought the rumor three times and then turned around and bought the fact,” he said.
As negotiations continue and additional shipments are announced, market participants are watching closely to determine whether China’s purchases will accelerate and how this will impact U.S. soybean prices amid ongoing tariffs and political considerations.
