Chicago soybean futures climbed to their highest levels in 16 months on Monday, fueled by expectations that China will resume large-scale purchases of U.S. soybeans following the recent trade truce between the two countries. The most-active January soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 19 cents to close at $11.34-1/4 per bushel, after briefly touching $11.34-1/2, marking its strongest continuous-chart performance since June 2024.
Wheat also gained on hopes of renewed Chinese demand, with the December CBOT wheat contract rising 9-1/2 cents to $5.43-1/2 per bushel. Corn followed the higher trend, with December futures adding 2-3/4 cents to $4.34-1/4 per bushel.
Traders noted that while optimism about Chinese purchases is driving markets, uncertainty remains over the actual scale of U.S. sales. Some recent reports indicated Chinese importers increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans, briefly pressuring U.S. prices. Yet markets quickly recovered, supported by technical buying at the start of a new month.
“There is still uncertainty on what the real deal is with China,” said Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities. “It sounds more positive than negative, so we just add more risk premium to the market.” Roose added that previously unattainable price targets are now looking achievable.
The rally follows the U.S. announcement that China would purchase millions of tons of soybeans as part of the trade agreement. Historically, Chinese buyers had largely avoided U.S. soybeans amid the trade dispute, sourcing from South America instead. Recent reports also indicate Chinese interest in U.S. wheat.
However, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has limited the availability of official export sales news, with daily USDA flash reports temporarily halted. China’s first purchases of this year’s U.S. soybean crop occurred last week, comprising three shipments. Dealers are now waiting for announcements regarding reductions in punitive import tariffs, which could pave the way for larger volumes of U.S. agricultural sales.
