Soybean oil prices in Chicago continue to slide as the U.S. harvest begins, weighed down by sluggish Chinese demand and uncertainty over future U.S. biofuel mandates. The weakness is now spilling into competing vegetable oil markets, adding pressure to palm, sunflower, and rapeseed oil prices worldwide.
December soybean oil futures in Chicago dropped 4.2% last week to $1,112 per tonne, extending a monthly decline of 5%. Traders point to the Trump administration’s unresolved biofuel production quotas for 2026-27 as an additional bearish factor. In contrast, Brazilian soybean oil quotes were slightly firmer at $1,130–1,135/t FOB, while China’s domestic prices remained subdued at around $1,180/t, reflecting heavy forward imports of Brazilian soybeans scheduled for November delivery.
Palm oil has held steadier. October futures on the Bursa Malaysia Exchange hovered around 4,479 ringgit/t ($1,065/t) for a third consecutive week, supported by strong export flows to India ahead of autumn festival demand.
Sunflower oil, however, is under renewed pressure. Prices in India have fallen $15–20/t in the past week to $1,270–1,280/t C&F, softening Black Sea market values. Russian export offers for September–October delivery eased another $5–10/t to $1,130–1,135/t FOB, while Ukrainian prices slipped to $1,170–1,190/t at Black Sea ports on larger sunflower arrivals.
Rapeseed dynamics are further reshaping the oilseed complex. In Ukraine, falling rapeseed prices—linked to suspended exports—have widened crush margins, prompting processors to prioritize rapeseed over sunflower. Domestic sunflower prices are now quoted at 27,000–28,000 UAH/t ($575–600/t) versus rapeseed at 23,000–23,500 UAH/t ($490–500/t). Meanwhile, EU rapeseed oil values slipped $10/t last week to $1,245–1,250/t FOB Netherlands.
Looking ahead, analysts expect vegetable oil markets to stabilize as harvest results from soybeans, sunflower, and rapeseed become clearer and production rises in the 2025/26 marketing year. Yet geopolitical tensions—intensified by Israeli strikes in Qatar and Russian drone incursions over Poland—could inject speculative volatility into crude oil, which has been steady around $67/barrel.
