Chicago Board of Trade grain futures rose on Monday, supported by optimism that the U.S. government shutdown could soon end and expectations for renewed U.S. soybean exports to China. January soybean futures closed up 13 cents at $11.30 per bushel, while December corn settled 2-1/2 cents higher at $4.29-3/4 and December wheat gained 8 cents to $5.35-3/4.
The market’s upward movement coincided with Wall Street gains, fueled by hopes that the 41-day federal shutdown would soon conclude. “It’s euphoric buying, with expectations of the government opening sooner rather than later,” said Don Roose, president of Iowa-based U.S. Commodities. Traders were also positioning themselves ahead of Friday’s USDA crop supply and demand reports, which will include the agency’s first U.S. and global crop estimates since mid-September.
Concerns over potentially lower yield estimates for corn and soybeans lent additional support to the grain markets. Private firms, including StoneX and S&P Global Commodity Insights, have projected U.S. corn yields below the USDA’s mid-September estimate of 186.7 bushels per acre, adding to cautious bullish sentiment.
Soybean traders were further encouraged by signs of a resumption of U.S. soybean sales to China. After declining last week due to a lack of confirmed Chinese purchases, Chicago soybeans regained momentum when China restored import licenses for three U.S. exporters: CHS, Louis Dreyfus, and EGT. Analysts from Argus noted that while purchases may develop slowly, the restoration of export authorizations reassured the market.
Despite this optimism, USDA weekly export inspection data through November 6 showed no U.S. grain or oilseed shipments to China during the week. Cereal markets were also limited by ample supplies from major exporters, as the U.S. corn harvest nears completion, wheat harvesting advances in Argentina and Australia, and Russian wheat exports accelerate.
The combination of geopolitical developments, crop report anticipation, and export optimism left U.S. grain markets cautiously higher, reflecting both potential demand and ongoing global supply considerations.
