Soybean futures moved higher this week, supported by short covering and technical buying, as traders prepared for Friday’s USDA supply, demand, and production report. Optimism remains cautious following the trade deal framework with China, though market participants note Brazil currently holds a price advantage. China continues to impose a 13% tariff on U.S. soybeans, and while there is talk of additional purchases, Beijing often favors the lowest-cost option.
U.S. export inspections showed an increase over the week but remained below last year’s levels, largely due to the absence of China as a buyer. Shipments were primarily destined for Pakistan and Egypt. Analysts point out that if China is removed from the equation, demand for U.S. soybeans remains strong. Meanwhile, South American conditions are shaping market expectations: AgRural reports that 61% of Brazil’s soybean crop has been planted, while China’s Ministry of Agriculture estimates the 2025/26 soybean harvest at 20.9 million tons, slightly below previous forecasts due to weather challenges. Soybean meal and oil futures followed the positive tone in the soybean complex.
Corn prices also edged higher on short covering and technical factors. Traders monitored the final stages of the U.S. harvest as well as planting and development progress in South America. Domestic demand is solid, with export inspections higher than last year and leading shipments to Mexico and Colombia. The USDA’s upcoming report, along with Brazil’s CONAB update, will provide clarity on supply, demand, and production. AgRural reports that over 70% of Brazil’s first corn crop has been planted, and China’s agricultural authorities project a record 300 million tons of corn for 2025/26, despite recent heavy rains on the North China Plain.
The wheat market closed higher on short covering and technical buying, though U.S. prices remain above many international competitors, potentially limiting further gains. Early harvest activity continues in Argentina and Australia, while planting and development progress in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine are also being watched. In the U.S., winter wheat planting is nearly complete, and export inspections remain ahead of last year’s pace at this point in the marketing year. Recent sales included primary shipments to Mexico and the Philippines, along with a reported 50,000-ton purchase by a South Korean flour mill.
Traders are now focused on Friday’s USDA and CONAB reports, with global weather conditions and planting progress in Brazil, China, and other key production areas likely to influence market direction in the coming weeks.
