Soybean prices edged higher this week, supported by short covering and technical buying, as traders closely monitor export developments and South American crop conditions. Favorable weather across much of Brazil and Argentina has helped planting and crop development, providing a bullish backdrop for the global soybean market.
The 2025 U.S. soybean harvest is largely complete, though some uncollected acres remain in the field. Market participants are awaiting the USDA’s next supply and demand estimates, scheduled for December 9th, while Brazil’s crop outlook from CONAB is expected on December 11th. According to AgRural, 81% of Brazil’s soybean crop has already been planted. Reports indicate that cargoes are en route from U.S. ports to China, with these shipments expected to appear in the USDA’s export inspections report in the near term. Traders are also watching for the formal signing of the U.S.–China trade deal framework, which could occur within the next couple of weeks.
Soybean meal futures advanced, and soybean oil followed higher, partly driven by China’s increasing exports of soybean oil due to slow domestic demand and rising imports.
Corn prices saw modest gains, reflecting adjustments in spreads and market attention on late U.S. harvest activity and conditions in South America. In the U.S., 96% of the corn crop is harvested, though winter-like weather—including snow, high winds, and significantly colder temperatures—is expected to affect the Midwest and Plains this week. In Brazil, 93% of first-crop corn has been planted, and overall demand remains solid, though livestock feed usage is constrained by tight cattle supplies. U.S. ethanol production, supply, and export data, scheduled for release this Wednesday, will provide further market direction.
The wheat complex moved higher, supported by short covering and technical buying amid a weaker dollar. While nearly all U.S. winter wheat has been planted, emergence has been slow and crop ratings lag last year’s levels. Key wheat-growing regions in the U.S. are entering dormancy, while global wheat markets continue to track harvest activity in Argentina and Australia, crop development in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, and potential developments regarding Russia’s war in Ukraine. The USDA’s EU attaché recently increased import quotas for Ukrainian agricultural products, including wheat and corn, while SovEcon reports that Russia has accelerated grain sales to secure cash. Export demand for wheat remains solid, despite U.S. wheat prices trading above key competitors. Market participants are also focused on the first notice day for December commodity contracts this Friday.
