The trade agreement announced in November between the United States and China has reopened soybean imports that had been suspended for six months. Under the deal, China commits to purchasing 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans in the final two months of 2025 and at least 25 million tons annually between 2026 and 2028. Yet these volumes remain well below the levels seen in previous years. Total U.S. exports to China are expected to end 2025 at around 18 million tons one of the lowest levels of the past seven years.
While the agreement offers U.S. farmers short-term relief on pricing, the recovery is far from complete. Futures have approached $11 per bushel, but cash prices remain below break-even for many producers. Even after resuming purchases, China’s commitments fall short of the post-2020 average, echoing the steep decline experienced during the 2018 trade war, when shipments collapsed to just 8 million tons.
South American countries have filled the gap created during China’s six-month pause on U.S. imports. Brazil exported a record 79 million tons of soybeans to China between January and October and is expected to reach roughly 82 million tons for the year about 10 million tons more than in 2024, despite the return of U.S. soybeans. Although Brazil’s exports could decline to 72–75 million tons in 2026 if U.S. China trade normalizes, record planted area for the 2025/26 season suggests the country will remain a dominant supplier.
Argentina also benefited from China’s temporary shift. Between January and September, the country exported 7.6 million tons of soybeans 90% of which went to China representing a 65% increase compared to total 2024 exports. A brief suspension of Argentina’s 26% export tax triggered rapid purchases from China at lower prices; the $7 billion cap was reached within three days, reinstating the tax. Planting for the 2025/26 season began in November, with acreage slightly lower than last year yet still among the highest of the past five seasons.
These dynamics reveal that, despite the reopening of U.S. China soybean trade, South America continues to hold a strong competitive edge in global markets. China’s 13% tariff on U.S. soybeans keeps Brazilian and Argentine products more attractive. Meanwhile, the United States is trying to diversify its export base into East Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. It remains uncertain, however, whether emerging markets can offset weaker Chinese demand.
In the end, while the agreement brings short-term market stability, it does not guarantee a full recovery of the U.S. share in global soybean trade. Developments in Chinese demand and U.S. planting decisions for 2026 will play a decisive role in shaping the future of the soybean market.
