U.S. soybean futures climbed to a 15-month high on Thursday following the announcement that China, the world’s largest soybean importer, agreed to buy tens of millions of tons of American soybeans over the coming years as part of a trade truce with the United States. The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade closed up 13-1/4 cents at $11.07-3/4 per bushel, briefly reaching $11.14-1/2—a level not seen since July 2024.
The trade deal marked a welcome development for U.S. farmers who lost significant market share during the trade conflict with China, when Beijing turned to South American suppliers. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed that China will purchase at least 12 million metric tons this year, followed by a minimum of 25 million metric tons annually in 2026, 2027, and 2028.
“It’s not over and above what they had been doing in the past, but it’s definitely helpful,” said Illinois farmer Sherman Newlin, who also works as an analyst for Risk Management Commodities. Iowa Soybean Association President Tom Adam added that the announcement addressed concerns over stalled purchases and uncertainty regarding market access to China.
Despite the short-term boost, some analysts remain cautious about the long-term impact. Don Roose, president of Iowa brokerage U.S. Commodities, noted that while exporters are likely to move soybeans to China quickly in the near term, doubts persist about whether Beijing will fully honor the commitments, citing a similar shortfall under the 2020 “Phase One” trade deal.
Historically, U.S. soybean exports to China have ranged from 28 million to 36 million metric tons annually over the past decade, though recent years saw slightly lower volumes.
Meanwhile, corn and wheat futures moved lower on Thursday. CBOT December corn fell 3-3/4 cents to $4.30-1/4 per bushel, and CBOT December wheat dropped 8 cents to $5.24-1/4 per bushel, reflecting a shift in market focus toward soybean trade optimism.
The announcement underscores the continued importance of China as a top destination for U.S. soybeans, while traders remain watchful for concrete evidence of follow-through on the promised purchases.
