Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade surged on Thursday to their highest level in nearly 17 months as traders positioned themselves ahead of a major U.S. government crop report expected to revise yield estimates lower. The market also prepared for the resumption of daily export sales data, which could shed light on Chinese soybean purchases following the recent trade truce between Washington and Beijing.
CBOT January soybeans settled up 13-1/4 cents at $11.47 per bushel after reaching $11.50-1/2, marking the highest continuous chart price for the most-active contract since June 2024. Corn futures also climbed, with the January contract ending 6-1/4 cents higher at $4.41-1/2 per bushel, while wheat drifted slightly lower, settling down 1/4 cent at $5.35-3/4 per bushel amid forecasts for a record Argentine crop.
The USDA is scheduled to release its first global supply and demand outlook since September on Friday. The delay in official data was due to the 43-day federal government shutdown, which also paused the release of daily export sales reports. On Thursday, the agency began issuing weekly export sales updates, starting with the week ended September 25, and plans to release a comprehensive list showing daily U.S. agricultural sales over the last six weeks.
Market participants are particularly focused on Chinese soybean demand, with U.S. officials stating that Beijing pledged to purchase 12 million metric tons over November and December. The lack of official statistics during the shutdown has increased uncertainty over whether China has met these commitments.
Ahead of the USDA’s report, analysts surveyed by Reuters projected that U.S. corn yields would drop to 184.0 bushels per acre from 186.7, while soybean yields were expected to fall to 53.1 bushels per acre from 53.5. The anticipated revisions come as harvesting nears completion, providing more definitive insight into the season’s output.
Wheat markets were pressured by rising expectations for Argentina’s 2025-26 crop. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange raised its forecast to 24 million metric tons, up from 22 million, while the Rosario Exchange set a record estimate of 24.5 million tons. The projected ample global wheat supply weighed on CBOT wheat futures, even as soybeans and corn climbed in anticipation of potential demand shifts.
The combination of tighter U.S. yield projections and uncertainty over Chinese purchases has created a volatile backdrop for grain markets, with traders closely monitoring the USDA reports for the first clear view of the 2025-26 crop outlook.
